December exports surged 13.5% and the trade surplus expected by most to fall further to a low $9 bln month on month, shot back to $16.5 bln near its record levels of $19-$21 bln earlier during the last months when trade was not expected to lead China to a hard landing! Another shutdown for naysayers ( and the Hawks at home field) on Sunday came from a consumer Credit surge in the USA , preempting a likely growth in Exports instead of an expected slowdown.
China’s recovery in exports underlines that Asia and US will continue the growth momentum esp as US remians a choice destination for many Asian economies thru the tradition sea routes in the Pacific. ex China economies have also been shutdown due to deleveraging by European banks leading to the rise in cost of credit in the region.
China’s trade numbers continue the low 13% growth in November to December and surplus continues to challenge home economists batting for domestic demand led growth to avert abrupt slowdown in 2012. Imports grew just 11%. Most would also be happy with the “slow” 7.5% growth in December quarter in the GDP. Economists were batting for a growth in imports that did not come about.
Global cues:
Another warning on Global 2012 prospects comes from the Iran barricading of Strait of Hormuz as China and Japan face banking sanctions from the US if they try to buy and pay for US Oil..
China’s import data, wrongly read in most mainstream media as depressing ( see Financial Times for example) has already brought buoyancy back yto Copper as Alcoa leads with great results for the quarter. Copper has firmed up 10% on the month for China’s imports
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