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The war in China

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China Crisis Highlights: China Construction Bank

China Holds Annual National People's Congress

US and China

China holds 23% of US Treasury debt and in the near future may also add from the 21% held by Japan, safe in its aspiration to be US’s banker (China) Thus China would not likely do anything to tipple the Dollar from its perch as it by policy likes the US whe it plans to expand in the West despite other political aspirations.

It was a slow crisis

Back in January when by tradition, the Big 4 in China opened the floodgates they quickly notched up more than the $550 m in new loans at the end of the month. Bank of China, covered earlier, led with $135bn or $800bn Renminbi(CNY) in loans. In the same period china Mobile suffered at the bourse for spending $3 bn to pick up 20% of the tiny Shanghai Pudong Bank, and it came three months after the Chinese added a large amount of Yuan in float at the Hong kong markets for preparing for the inevitable. The crisis is currently panning out in a slow expansion of derelict inventory and falling consumption in pockets of the economy. Do go back to all these stories at http://china.advantages.us

China Holds Annual National People's Congress

This year, we will have more half-drawn swords to show faith in the demands made by the Western World and as the natural sequence of credit dries up, China will look more and more like us. In that light we coevr the other three banks from the mainland held by the Huijin for the PRC. In just October 2008, even as the lemmings sold themselves upstream for the TBTF failures of July and September, ken Lewis paid $7bn for 6.8% of CCB at a substantial discount with the TARP cash. Eventually in 2009 BofA was rid of both Lewis and CCB, CCB sold to a local PE fun, Hopu Invest Management for $3 bn for the 3bn shares coming to 7% of CCB it held. BofA’s 17% netted $7.3 billion for 54 cents a share. Hopu is funded by Temasek of Singapore and the Golden Goldman Sachs. Temasek also pad USD 600MM for a direct stake in CCB.

The Bank

Like other Huijin banks, CCB started global push outs with 3 fund management JVs by 2005, with Credit Suisse, COSCO and Schroeders in the last one in 2005. It’s post IPO hare holders included China Life and Temasek (5.7%) when the government stake through Huijin came to below 50% It established resources in Hong Kong with the acquisition of BofA(Asia) the Bank of Canton successor in the territory in 2006

Currently the Central Huijin has reinvested in CCB with 78.4 moillion H-shares and the S-shares repurchased in six month long market operations and from China Jianyin(Jianyin=Bank) another of its own investment companies in 2009 to 57%

Current CCB Capital Adequacy at 11% is a might lower than 11.5% required by the China Bank Regulatory Commission but has denied rumors of further consolidation by Huijin or new shares issuance to boost the TCE

China's Central Bank Lifts 2nd Home Mortgage Down Payment

Huijin is also injecting $12 billion in China EXIM Bank and $4 billion in Sinosure as a CIC subsidiary. China’s banking system liquidity reserves are also lower than the internationally accepted 15% though the regulaors have raised such reserve requirements in 2009.

many of those smaller banks are believed to need new capital to boost their adequacy ratios.

China CITIC Bank (0998.HK)(601998.SS) is actively exploring raising capital [ID:nBJC002509], and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK)(600036.SS) is launching a $3.2 billion rights issue, but this week said it should require no further capital raising for at least the next three years. [ID:nBJB003703]

Bank of Communications (BoCom) (3328.HK) (601328.SS), China’s fifth-largest lender, said last month that it planned to raise as much as 42 billion yuan via a rights issue in Shanghai and Hong Kong to bolster capital.

Strictly Bank Business

CCB October 2009 reported more than $4.52 bn in profits ( 6.7 RMB= 1 USD) growing 18% y-o-y by bank’s IFRS interpretation, $12.86 bn for the 9 months of 2009. It has recently attempted a $730 million Healthcare Fund. At a total of 234 bn shares outstanding, CCB is worth $196 bn as of March 2010. In line with the crises of plenty, it has recently increased down payments on retail mortgages and second homes, designed to step with CBRC’s plans to protect the economy from a property bubble. he bank is opening 100 rural branches with Banco Santander as also a $100mn auo financing unit with them. The Banco Santander JV has a capital of RMB 3 bn. It has also recently bought a 50% stake in Antai Life from ING. It’s last capital raising was thru subordinated bonds worth $15 bn in December

CCB is expected to close 2010 with $40 billion in Sales and has its share of exposure to real estate groups ( $10 bn contract with leading developer) and local bodies though the new debt is mostly from smaller banks

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Lifestyle Infrastructure

One of our special themes at the Advantages weblogs has been our assertion that US, India, China and most of the rest of the world that is growing

is likely to do so on the basis of a consumption revolution. Below is out insight piece that opened the chapter on India's final coming out that was much awaited but wasn't really happening till 2009..

The Commonwealth Games Infrastructure Train

A few years ago, when the Indian women shot Gold in Commonwealth Hockey and our aim in general started consistently being medal grade, we won the bid for New Delhi to host the games in 2010. This business of infrastructure had been mystifying sportspersons for decades in India; none too easily supported by the overarching smell of rent and inadequate facilities for local sports persons historically.

Even today most sports would bow out in front of Cricket and that is not a full-fledged event at the CWG, though there is still a toss-up for the T20 version to be added. Like most other spheres of life, China has been doing it higher, faster and stronger, having already held the challenging Olympics in 2008 earning over $2b for Beijing, the host city.

The story is quite public and you must have all followed it at least since August 2009 when the first few fistcuffs were exchanged regarding the lack of preparations for the CWG event now just 6-7 months away. The Sports Minister and the Games Organising Committee Chair Suresh Kalmadi has variously ben painted and vilified while we look at the rejuvenated parts of Wembley in London and survive on facepaint and cheering the local IPL franchise in Cricket games. The painting of events apart we just thought it important for Sports and Tourist infrastructure worth $1.5 billion to be included in the India story at about this time.

This preamble would survive your taste buds and your snipping scissors in the mind and we�ll come back right after lunch is over for you..

And the Original piece..follow up article on our Lifestyle Economics stream

If you have been following the India story closely, India�fs new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories athttp://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what�fs happening in Indian Infrastructure

On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors�cRural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. �c Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors?..

Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies�f profits in the coming years�c

10-Year-Old Girl Scores Hole-In-One at US Kids Golf European Championship in Scotland
(The image is of a young indian golfer in Scotland)

BUT, Importantly, India caught on to serious lifestyle investments early in 2005, Today with the debut of Cox and Kings IPO..

Where it is now?

Towns like Jalandhar, Ludhiana in Punjab, Jaipur and Agra on the Golden Triangle and such state capitals, heritage and business towns like Ahmedabad, Surat and Nagpur present a unique opportunity for Indian hospitality business to scale up, esp as Indian railways, india�fs aviation footprint and the road infrastructure will follow in step with the boom. Note: The Indian Maharaja with TC, Maharajas Express with Cox & Kings, and the other two luxury trains have started first season bookings quite well and money is being spendt to add gym and pool to the Palace on wheels as well ( More here ) Golden Palace started from Bangalore is not doing so well apparently. The Maharajas Express for example is 84 persons at an average of $1000 per night for a 7 day- 8 night tour between Mumbai and Delhi

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