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The war in China

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China Crisis Highlights: Bank of China

[$1,000,000 = 6,830,000 RMB = CNY 6,830,000]

The series name may be a little objectionable to the regulars. it is however the choice of China to consider its policy for banking in 2010 based on the same headlines of late 2009 and early 2010. Counting CNY (RMB) 1.4 trillion in residential mortgages, the banks issued new loans for $1.4 Trillion in 2009 and though they crossed Japan and came out second in Global GDP, it seemed a little hot under the collar for the nation of closed door policymakers and much to borrowers chagrin, currently a block is in place, raising CRR rates for select banks like ICBC and restricting further lending. In fact, just today, loans have been called back, starting with bills discounted last month. Short Term financing from Bill discounting is likely contributing oto speculation in the Property market and in stocks. Chinese Banks still ended January with CNY 1.1 T in loans. The State’s Investment arm CIC invests in the Big 4 through the Central Huijin Investment Ltd company, so it has no direct stake in the banks. It recently picked up 30 million shares in ICBC and 5 million shares(Shanghai issue)  in Bank of China to take its stake to 67.5% in Bank of China. The state’s stake in ICBC and CCB is similarily 35% and 57% respectively.

Bank of China is a part of the Hang Seng Finance sub Index and the S&P Asia 50. ETFs on the latter are likely based on the S & P Global 1200 (AIA in the US). Bank of China is also part of the SSE50 on the Shanghai Exchange. New Equity is planned to be issued only on the Hang Seng in Hongkong. 8.4%  of its equity after the 2006 IPO was co-owned by RBS and billionaire Li Ka Shing. It also issues banknotes in Hongkong and Macau. It raised $9.7 billion in the 2006 IPO. The troubled UBS holds 1.3% in the bank’s equity.

Bank of China is a part of the big 4 but as the smallest, landed bank limits of CNY 600 billion or $88bn in the new regime, of which it has lent the most in January, a total of 23% of the limit or $20 billion already with clients in approvals and disbursals.

Bank of China as a player is also likely geared towards activity in Hong kong and leads the Big 4 in Foreign Exchange Lending. It is planning a capital issue of $5.86 billion or RMB 40 billion in 3% coupon Bonds ( 6 yr Convertible Bonds with coupon near 3% ) based on the early credit expansion which it has then scaled back at CBRC’s insistence. The bond issue will likely sail through along with another Rights issue by March 2010.  BOC is the largest lender in China after ICBC and thus the most affected by the curbs.

It is opening branches in Taiwan in this year and expanding corporate business in the US with ‘Mega Finance’

The ex SIA investment Singapore Aircraft Leasing is now a BOC company listed as BOC Aviation.  It had a 2009 agreement with Financial One to increase business in the SME space and opened a South American branch also in 2009 in Brazil. It has reported RMB 200 billion or $29 in Interest Income in the first nine months and may report results this week after getting them checked with CBRC. The asset base in the meantime is expected to be RMB 8.6 T at end 2009 and RMB 8.760 T this month or $1.3 T

This time they seem to have found the hole in their discount tiers in residential mortgages..i know some swiss and Europenan Banks that still haven’t looked.

References:

CBRC calling back loans

BOC.CN

WSJ China on Mortgages

BOC Wiki

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Lifestyle Infrastructure

One of our special themes at the Advantages weblogs has been our assertion that US, India, China and most of the rest of the world that is growing

is likely to do so on the basis of a consumption revolution. Below is out insight piece that opened the chapter on India's final coming out that was much awaited but wasn't really happening till 2009..

The Commonwealth Games Infrastructure Train

A few years ago, when the Indian women shot Gold in Commonwealth Hockey and our aim in general started consistently being medal grade, we won the bid for New Delhi to host the games in 2010. This business of infrastructure had been mystifying sportspersons for decades in India; none too easily supported by the overarching smell of rent and inadequate facilities for local sports persons historically.

Even today most sports would bow out in front of Cricket and that is not a full-fledged event at the CWG, though there is still a toss-up for the T20 version to be added. Like most other spheres of life, China has been doing it higher, faster and stronger, having already held the challenging Olympics in 2008 earning over $2b for Beijing, the host city.

The story is quite public and you must have all followed it at least since August 2009 when the first few fistcuffs were exchanged regarding the lack of preparations for the CWG event now just 6-7 months away. The Sports Minister and the Games Organising Committee Chair Suresh Kalmadi has variously ben painted and vilified while we look at the rejuvenated parts of Wembley in London and survive on facepaint and cheering the local IPL franchise in Cricket games. The painting of events apart we just thought it important for Sports and Tourist infrastructure worth $1.5 billion to be included in the India story at about this time.

This preamble would survive your taste buds and your snipping scissors in the mind and we�ll come back right after lunch is over for you..

And the Original piece..follow up article on our Lifestyle Economics stream

If you have been following the India story closely, India�fs new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories athttp://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what�fs happening in Indian Infrastructure

On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors�cRural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. �c Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors?..

Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies�f profits in the coming years�c

10-Year-Old Girl Scores Hole-In-One at US Kids Golf European Championship in Scotland
(The image is of a young indian golfer in Scotland)

BUT, Importantly, India caught on to serious lifestyle investments early in 2005, Today with the debut of Cox and Kings IPO..

Where it is now?

Towns like Jalandhar, Ludhiana in Punjab, Jaipur and Agra on the Golden Triangle and such state capitals, heritage and business towns like Ahmedabad, Surat and Nagpur present a unique opportunity for Indian hospitality business to scale up, esp as Indian railways, india�fs aviation footprint and the road infrastructure will follow in step with the boom. Note: The Indian Maharaja with TC, Maharajas Express with Cox & Kings, and the other two luxury trains have started first season bookings quite well and money is being spendt to add gym and pool to the Palace on wheels as well ( More here ) Golden Palace started from Bangalore is not doing so well apparently. The Maharajas Express for example is 84 persons at an average of $1000 per night for a 7 day- 8 night tour between Mumbai and Delhi

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