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The war in China

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Let's see some Temasek muscle

India WSJ reports today that Temasek is planning to add to its investments in India and China. Temasek recently completed its bond issue of $1.5 billion (Bloomberg). As of 2007 itself, Temaseks holdings in India included a 5% stake in Airtel and amounted to over 4% of its global portfolio at over $3 billion. It would have risen further in Dollar terms today with SGD having appreciated to 1.394 SGD to USD from 1.71 levels then.

They began in India (2004) with a 9% stake pick up in ICICI Bank, then at its vaunted peak, and 7.7% in Matrix Labs. They also bought a 5% stake in Apollo Hospitals and 20% in Onesource.(see here) Obviously Temasek already holds a sizable interest in Singapore Airlines, SingTel and DBS Bank to name a few within Singapore.

Being a city-state, Singapore has the advantage of cool crisp governance translating into control and business growth through such primarily SME modes of direct ownership in large infrastructure businesses. Their superb performance is underlined by quick decision-making and strong financial health as shown by its response to its and its clients’ recent bond issues for Temasek, PSA and one more. Interestingly, no non Temasek company has been able to raise debt from Singapore in 2009

As WSJ reports:

In China, Temasek already owns a 6% stake in China Construction Bank Corp. and a 4% in Bank of China Ltd. It has tried to invest in China’s airline industry, but a deal for Temasek and its unit Singapore Airlines Ltd. to pay $923 million for a 24% stake in China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. fell through last year when China Eastern shareholders rejected the offer in hopes of a higher bid from Air China that never materialized.

Singapore Airliners is eager to restart talks with China Eastern if Beijing were to support foreign investment in the carrier, one of the people said.

In India, Temasek owns stakes in Tata Teleservices, conglomerate Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel and logistics company Gateway Ditriparks. Manish Kejriwal, Temasek’s senior managing director, investment, international & India, said Temasek believes opportunities in consumer-oriented businesses and infrastructure in India “will lead to emergence of champions that are excellent proxies for economic growth.”

Temasek’s holdings also include major stakes in a cross-section of Singapore blue-chip companies. It has raised those stakes by subscribing to rights issues in a number of those companies that have turned out to be profitable.

Temasek bled heavily earlier this year from its stakes in Merrill (above 10%)  and quickly withdrew. It is also making profits on its stakes in Citi however and is holding StanChart as well for short-term profit. Its profits from Citi ( over $3 billion) may somewhat compensate it for its losses at BofA Merrill and others.  Despite these losses, it is one of the few SWFs that has survived today and is growing larger.  Temasek still plans to add to its investment in ‘Western Banks’ as per their own discussions with the press.

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Lifestyle Infrastructure

One of our special themes at the Advantages weblogs has been our assertion that US, India, China and most of the rest of the world that is growing

is likely to do so on the basis of a consumption revolution. Below is out insight piece that opened the chapter on India's final coming out that was much awaited but wasn't really happening till 2009..

The Commonwealth Games Infrastructure Train

A few years ago, when the Indian women shot Gold in Commonwealth Hockey and our aim in general started consistently being medal grade, we won the bid for New Delhi to host the games in 2010. This business of infrastructure had been mystifying sportspersons for decades in India; none too easily supported by the overarching smell of rent and inadequate facilities for local sports persons historically.

Even today most sports would bow out in front of Cricket and that is not a full-fledged event at the CWG, though there is still a toss-up for the T20 version to be added. Like most other spheres of life, China has been doing it higher, faster and stronger, having already held the challenging Olympics in 2008 earning over $2b for Beijing, the host city.

The story is quite public and you must have all followed it at least since August 2009 when the first few fistcuffs were exchanged regarding the lack of preparations for the CWG event now just 6-7 months away. The Sports Minister and the Games Organising Committee Chair Suresh Kalmadi has variously ben painted and vilified while we look at the rejuvenated parts of Wembley in London and survive on facepaint and cheering the local IPL franchise in Cricket games. The painting of events apart we just thought it important for Sports and Tourist infrastructure worth $1.5 billion to be included in the India story at about this time.

This preamble would survive your taste buds and your snipping scissors in the mind and we�ll come back right after lunch is over for you..

And the Original piece..follow up article on our Lifestyle Economics stream

If you have been following the India story closely, India�fs new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories athttp://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what�fs happening in Indian Infrastructure

On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors�cRural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. �c Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors?..

Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies�f profits in the coming years�c

10-Year-Old Girl Scores Hole-In-One at US Kids Golf European Championship in Scotland
(The image is of a young indian golfer in Scotland)

BUT, Importantly, India caught on to serious lifestyle investments early in 2005, Today with the debut of Cox and Kings IPO..

Where it is now?

Towns like Jalandhar, Ludhiana in Punjab, Jaipur and Agra on the Golden Triangle and such state capitals, heritage and business towns like Ahmedabad, Surat and Nagpur present a unique opportunity for Indian hospitality business to scale up, esp as Indian railways, india�fs aviation footprint and the road infrastructure will follow in step with the boom. Note: The Indian Maharaja with TC, Maharajas Express with Cox & Kings, and the other two luxury trains have started first season bookings quite well and money is being spendt to add gym and pool to the Palace on wheels as well ( More here ) Golden Palace started from Bangalore is not doing so well apparently. The Maharajas Express for example is 84 persons at an average of $1000 per night for a 7 day- 8 night tour between Mumbai and Delhi

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