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ING's Private Bank sale

ING is trying to sell its Private Bank in Asia because it needs the $1 billion from the sale to cover the $11 billion borrowed from the Dutch Government (Netherlands, Prince Philip)

The erstwhile sponsor of the New York Marathon, is also considering the withdrawal of ING Direct from USA after its recent failures. It had walked into a sale of ABN AMRO where it was thwarted by RBS and Barclays in 2007. It also sponsors the Renault F1 team, is AAA rated with central risk management from Netherands HO, and is 81st in the World’s Top 100 brands. Though it has recently been favored by Market pundits, it remains at the bottom of the Euro top 25 much like Alonso’s podium achievements this year, ranking just 2/3rd of SocGen which in itself is hardly known outside France despite the excellent branch network both share. Loan loss provisions are nearing trillions of Dollars ( EUR 852 million at 1.16% of RWA on a Balance sheet of EUR 1.1 billion only) Also the claim Tier I ratio of 9.4% is still low in terms of TCE

I have the usual objections to the sale:

1. For the buyer, It will never include sizable offshore assets from India as it works out of Hongkong, Singapore and maybe Philipines and in India it is independently owned and controlled by the ING and Vysya JV with ING stake at around 41%

2. The China assets in Private Banking will again likely be structured products and other such which are not going to be of any significant continuous revenue and where the customers are locked in.

3. Offshore Banking assets are being purchased by Swiss major Julius Baer who have no experience in Asia or DBS which has no real experience in Banking outside commercial bills discounting and trade services for SMEs. Thus the point also being made is that bank regulation does not ssolve all problems, it only creates more.

4. If a wealth management major does snag the bank, the expectation from the new provider would be of tax efficient structures, which have historically been rare in Asia unless tax avoidance is counted as another viable structure :) And the European structures or the ones in Bermuda are not going to be able to offer hope to such wealth list honchos as may be 1-2% of the ING portfolio

5. A lot of these wealth assets have historically been mortgaged/remortgaged or otherwise suspended assets from heirs and fourth generation entrepeneurs which are not what you would find in a Swiss vault

6. Fee structures are tightly regulated in the Asian market and new sources of fee revenue may not be possible.

All that said, I really don’t know the asset size that ING Wealth Management holds in Asia, but it would seem possible that the $1 billion price may be way off the price recd in the red tag sale underway.

However, the mechanics of this sale are vastly different from the one attempted by RBS where Private Banking and Corporate Banking are being retained by the bank. Offshore banking teams would be largely dependent on commission arrangements with Funds and Insurance investment companies and new business is not the main revenue stream here..

New Year Update: As of October 2009, ANZ has wound up purchasing ING’s partnership interest in the JV down under giving ING a clear $300 million profit on the wealth operation and $1.5 billion in Dutch Cash to pay its government..The other Asia units remain

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Lifestyle Infrastructure

One of our special themes at the Advantages weblogs has been our assertion that US, India, China and most of the rest of the world that is growing

is likely to do so on the basis of a consumption revolution. Below is out insight piece that opened the chapter on India's final coming out that was much awaited but wasn't really happening till 2009..

The Commonwealth Games Infrastructure Train

A few years ago, when the Indian women shot Gold in Commonwealth Hockey and our aim in general started consistently being medal grade, we won the bid for New Delhi to host the games in 2010. This business of infrastructure had been mystifying sportspersons for decades in India; none too easily supported by the overarching smell of rent and inadequate facilities for local sports persons historically.

Even today most sports would bow out in front of Cricket and that is not a full-fledged event at the CWG, though there is still a toss-up for the T20 version to be added. Like most other spheres of life, China has been doing it higher, faster and stronger, having already held the challenging Olympics in 2008 earning over $2b for Beijing, the host city.

The story is quite public and you must have all followed it at least since August 2009 when the first few fistcuffs were exchanged regarding the lack of preparations for the CWG event now just 6-7 months away. The Sports Minister and the Games Organising Committee Chair Suresh Kalmadi has variously ben painted and vilified while we look at the rejuvenated parts of Wembley in London and survive on facepaint and cheering the local IPL franchise in Cricket games. The painting of events apart we just thought it important for Sports and Tourist infrastructure worth $1.5 billion to be included in the India story at about this time.

This preamble would survive your taste buds and your snipping scissors in the mind and we�ll come back right after lunch is over for you..

And the Original piece..follow up article on our Lifestyle Economics stream

If you have been following the India story closely, India�fs new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories athttp://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what�fs happening in Indian Infrastructure

On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors�cRural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. �c Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors?..

Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies�f profits in the coming years�c

10-Year-Old Girl Scores Hole-In-One at US Kids Golf European Championship in Scotland
(The image is of a young indian golfer in Scotland)

BUT, Importantly, India caught on to serious lifestyle investments early in 2005, Today with the debut of Cox and Kings IPO..

Where it is now?

Towns like Jalandhar, Ludhiana in Punjab, Jaipur and Agra on the Golden Triangle and such state capitals, heritage and business towns like Ahmedabad, Surat and Nagpur present a unique opportunity for Indian hospitality business to scale up, esp as Indian railways, india�fs aviation footprint and the road infrastructure will follow in step with the boom. Note: The Indian Maharaja with TC, Maharajas Express with Cox & Kings, and the other two luxury trains have started first season bookings quite well and money is being spendt to add gym and pool to the Palace on wheels as well ( More here ) Golden Palace started from Bangalore is not doing so well apparently. The Maharajas Express for example is 84 persons at an average of $1000 per night for a 7 day- 8 night tour between Mumbai and Delhi

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