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The war in China

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Inform. Instruct. Indicate.

The Investment blog is Advantage 'zyaada' freemium offering for your runaway success. We outrank WSJ, FT and most mainstream financial content consistently.


China's bold new 2009

China’s flip flop of 2009 | Confirms the expectation of leadership reversal in the world order?

Energy

Chinese Petro Corp CNPC ($PTR) is going ahead with $30 billion in loans to finance acquisitions despite the failed CNOOC bid in 2007, planned destinations being Argentina ( YSF Repsol) Brazil and Russia after state level discussions earlier in 2009 in Brazil and Russia.

PetroChina recently acquired a 45.5% stake in Singapore Petroleum from Keppel Corp. for 1.47 billion Singapore dollars ($1.02 billion). And it also signed a $41 billion liquefied natural gas deal with Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) to import the LNG from the Australia-based Gorgon LNG project

Also CNPC’s pocket from this loan is a total of $50 billion including its Cash reserves, while its purchase in Libya has already been stopped by local state officials and the Repsol purchase is only $15 billion..

Aviation

Boeing Co. (BA) expects orders from Chinese airlines to account for around 40% of its forecast of 8,960 commercial jet orders from Asia over the next 20 years, a senior Boeing executive said Wednesday. ( zyakaira niotes: this estimate is already 2 years behind, with all this heave ho on, and no aircrafts having sold)

Randy Tinseth, Boeing’s vice president of marketing for its commercial aircraft division, told this WSJ report that China will grow at 8.6%, NA at 2.5% and the intra-Europe market to grow 3.4% annually, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers, a key metric for gauging passenger revenue.

Tinseth said the recent economic downturn has prompted some airlines to defer deliveries of new aircraft. For 2008, Boeing recorded 100 deferrals, mostly from North American customers.

Tinseth said the number of deferrals this year is “something greater than” the 2008 number, but declined to elaborate. The Energy news here is courtesy TheDeal and silobreaker

State Money

While state-owned China Development Bank financed CNPC, the $300 billion China Investment Corp (SWF) is moving in to purchase distressed real estate in the US with the help of the US government

Commodity Derivatives and the excessive lending

Meanwhile Foreign banks continued to suffer in China and probably move faster to N11 and North American Markets as Chinese Aviation and Oil companies continued to threaten 100% default on Commodity derivatives because prices have dropped sharply and new loan growth has slowed down after a state wide change in policy closing down the long term fund window on stimulus and planning to save its economy from spiralling bad debt

Other MNCs like Unilever continue to plan far a longer innings at the cost of profits according to the new Chinese edition of WSJ

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Lifestyle Infrastructure

One of our special themes at the Advantages weblogs has been our assertion that US, India, China and most of the rest of the world that is growing

is likely to do so on the basis of a consumption revolution. Below is out insight piece that opened the chapter on India's final coming out that was much awaited but wasn't really happening till 2009..

The Commonwealth Games Infrastructure Train

A few years ago, when the Indian women shot Gold in Commonwealth Hockey and our aim in general started consistently being medal grade, we won the bid for New Delhi to host the games in 2010. This business of infrastructure had been mystifying sportspersons for decades in India; none too easily supported by the overarching smell of rent and inadequate facilities for local sports persons historically.

Even today most sports would bow out in front of Cricket and that is not a full-fledged event at the CWG, though there is still a toss-up for the T20 version to be added. Like most other spheres of life, China has been doing it higher, faster and stronger, having already held the challenging Olympics in 2008 earning over $2b for Beijing, the host city.

The story is quite public and you must have all followed it at least since August 2009 when the first few fistcuffs were exchanged regarding the lack of preparations for the CWG event now just 6-7 months away. The Sports Minister and the Games Organising Committee Chair Suresh Kalmadi has variously ben painted and vilified while we look at the rejuvenated parts of Wembley in London and survive on facepaint and cheering the local IPL franchise in Cricket games. The painting of events apart we just thought it important for Sports and Tourist infrastructure worth $1.5 billion to be included in the India story at about this time.

This preamble would survive your taste buds and your snipping scissors in the mind and we�ll come back right after lunch is over for you..

And the Original piece..follow up article on our Lifestyle Economics stream

If you have been following the India story closely, India�fs new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories athttp://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what�fs happening in Indian Infrastructure

On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors�cRural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. �c Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors?..

Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies�f profits in the coming years�c

10-Year-Old Girl Scores Hole-In-One at US Kids Golf European Championship in Scotland
(The image is of a young indian golfer in Scotland)

BUT, Importantly, India caught on to serious lifestyle investments early in 2005, Today with the debut of Cox and Kings IPO..

Where it is now?

Towns like Jalandhar, Ludhiana in Punjab, Jaipur and Agra on the Golden Triangle and such state capitals, heritage and business towns like Ahmedabad, Surat and Nagpur present a unique opportunity for Indian hospitality business to scale up, esp as Indian railways, india�fs aviation footprint and the road infrastructure will follow in step with the boom. Note: The Indian Maharaja with TC, Maharajas Express with Cox & Kings, and the other two luxury trains have started first season bookings quite well and money is being spendt to add gym and pool to the Palace on wheels as well ( More here ) Golden Palace started from Bangalore is not doing so well apparently. The Maharajas Express for example is 84 persons at an average of $1000 per night for a 7 day- 8 night tour between Mumbai and Delhi

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