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AIG still on the precipice?

 

AIG will soon be a domestic insurer if the planned three way split comes through to let the company return Federal funds as it has already spun off its International insurer AIA. In related news, all top four investment bankers are involved in this break up and sale of AIG.

It’s part of AIG’s master plan, known as ‘Project Destiny,’ which aims to repay a big chunk of the $82 billion in loans owed to U.S. taxpayers.

AIG is breaking off three huge subsidiaries: Its property-casualty business, recently renamed Chartis; Southeast Asian life insurer AIA; and foreign life insurance unit ALICO. Chartis was spun off last week, but its shares will be not be sold to the government.

The current scrip (closing at $22.53 yesterday) is the result of a reverse split of 1:20 preventing a penny stock tag for a stock that was ‘once the pride of the nation’. AIG also does not have a very clear corp governance record till date, making short term arrangements with Liddy and Greenberg both regularly answering charges and stepping out

In June 2009, Revenue jumped 48% to $29.53 billion.

Operating income at AIG’s general-insurance business dropped 19% on a decline in underwriting profit, while net premiums written fell the same amount. Combined ratio, or the portion of premiums paid out on claims and expenses, rose six percentage points to 98.2%.(precarious, the true income stream as it may not dabble in other income enhancing trades now)

Meanwhile, the life-insurance and retirement-services segment’s loss narrowed sharply as the company said it had a difficult but improving operating environment. The investment assets as of Q1(Mar 2009) amounted to $560 billion and even a 10% loss on these largely policy liabilities, could wipe off the company

AIG now reports a profit of $2.57 per share at $4.57 billion, taking Equity up to $58 billion

On Monday, Robert Benmosche, the former chairman and chief executive of MetLife Inc. (MET), will step in as AIG’s new chief executive, and new director Harvey Golub, formerly chief executive of American Express Co. (AXP), takes over as non-executive chairman. Edward Liddy, who took both roles in September after AIG’s first bailout, will step down.

AIG’s maximum risk on a separate book of swaps sold to European banks narrowed to $177.5 billion as of June 30, compared with $192.6 billion at the end of March. The insurer said in June that declines in the value of assets tied to the swaps could have a “material adverse effect” on results and that the risk of losses on the derivatives may last “longer than anticipated.”

This risk can still wipe out equity in the next 4 quarters unless the bad assets are separated from the conglomerate. It also has had initial hiccups in selling off its Asian businesses though it will complete a couple of sales in Taiwan life insurance in the next few days The Government holds $8 billion equity in the newly formed AIA

European Swaps

The average weighted length of the swaps protecting residential loans is more than 24 years, while the span tied to corporate loans is about 7 years, the company said.

The government’s rescue includes a $60 billion credit line, $52.5 billion to buy mortgage-linked assets owned or insured by the company, and a Treasury investment of as much as $70 billion. AIG agreed to turn over a stake of almost 80 percent as part of the initial bailout, diluting private shareholders.

AIG – which is 80% owned by the U.S. government following its rescue of the company last September – posted income of $1.82 billion, or $2.30 a share, compared with a year-earlier loss of $5.36 billion, or $41.13 a share. Excluding capital losses and other items, earnings were $2.57 a share, compared with a prior-year loss of $10.15 a share.

Data courtesy Bloomberg, WSJ and other results announcements

 

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Lifestyle Infrastructure

One of our special themes at the Advantages weblogs has been our assertion that US, India, China and most of the rest of the world that is growing

is likely to do so on the basis of a consumption revolution. Below is out insight piece that opened the chapter on India's final coming out that was much awaited but wasn't really happening till 2009..

The Commonwealth Games Infrastructure Train

A few years ago, when the Indian women shot Gold in Commonwealth Hockey and our aim in general started consistently being medal grade, we won the bid for New Delhi to host the games in 2010. This business of infrastructure had been mystifying sportspersons for decades in India; none too easily supported by the overarching smell of rent and inadequate facilities for local sports persons historically.

Even today most sports would bow out in front of Cricket and that is not a full-fledged event at the CWG, though there is still a toss-up for the T20 version to be added. Like most other spheres of life, China has been doing it higher, faster and stronger, having already held the challenging Olympics in 2008 earning over $2b for Beijing, the host city.

The story is quite public and you must have all followed it at least since August 2009 when the first few fistcuffs were exchanged regarding the lack of preparations for the CWG event now just 6-7 months away. The Sports Minister and the Games Organising Committee Chair Suresh Kalmadi has variously ben painted and vilified while we look at the rejuvenated parts of Wembley in London and survive on facepaint and cheering the local IPL franchise in Cricket games. The painting of events apart we just thought it important for Sports and Tourist infrastructure worth $1.5 billion to be included in the India story at about this time.

This preamble would survive your taste buds and your snipping scissors in the mind and we�ll come back right after lunch is over for you..

And the Original piece..follow up article on our Lifestyle Economics stream

If you have been following the India story closely, India�fs new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories athttp://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what�fs happening in Indian Infrastructure

On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors�cRural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. �c Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors?..

Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies�f profits in the coming years�c

10-Year-Old Girl Scores Hole-In-One at US Kids Golf European Championship in Scotland
(The image is of a young indian golfer in Scotland)

BUT, Importantly, India caught on to serious lifestyle investments early in 2005, Today with the debut of Cox and Kings IPO..

Where it is now?

Towns like Jalandhar, Ludhiana in Punjab, Jaipur and Agra on the Golden Triangle and such state capitals, heritage and business towns like Ahmedabad, Surat and Nagpur present a unique opportunity for Indian hospitality business to scale up, esp as Indian railways, india�fs aviation footprint and the road infrastructure will follow in step with the boom. Note: The Indian Maharaja with TC, Maharajas Express with Cox & Kings, and the other two luxury trains have started first season bookings quite well and money is being spendt to add gym and pool to the Palace on wheels as well ( More here ) Golden Palace started from Bangalore is not doing so well apparently. The Maharajas Express for example is 84 persons at an average of $1000 per night for a 7 day- 8 night tour between Mumbai and Delhi

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