Gloom, Doom and Worst Case Scenarios
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More horrible numbers for Chinas economy. Steel production in November: down 12.4 per cent year on year; Electricity production: down 9.6 %; fixed assset investment growth: declined to 26.8% in Jan-Nov from 27.2% in the first 10 months of 2008. The last figure is particularly relevant as FAI accounts for 42 % of GDP growth. Most economists warned that the numbers would be shocking and that wed have to wait until the second quarter of 2009 at the earliest before the stimulus showed any result. Still, the speed and scope of the decline remains hard to digest. Perhaps too many years of double digit growth warped my judgment. Anyway, it will be a long six or so months for both those thrown out of jobs and the cadres watching to see what the reaction of the newly unemployed is.
Apropos of which, I saw an article recently in which an eminent China scholar was quoted as saying that the Obama administration national security people should have some sort of contingency plan for a worst case scenario in China, ie if things fall apart, the center cannot hold and so on. I dunno. Theres plenty that can go wrong. of course. But even if you are supposed to plan for the worst and hope for the best, what exactly is the worst case, assuming the economy doesnt respond to stimulus, tens of millions more lose their jobs and so on? Riots in the streets of Beijing and Shanghai? Civil war? Warlordism? China split into fiefdoms with Beijing powerless? The overthrow of you-know-who by the enraged masses? Seems like a real stretch to me if for no other reason than the centripetal forces, self-interest, nationalism, sheer fear of the unknown read “chaos” that old Chinese bugbear are so strong. A chronic state of social unrest seems more likely. I guess Ill have to contact the professor and ask.
via The China Blog – TIME.com .
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Lifestyle Infrastructure
One of our special themes at the Advantages weblogs has been our assertion that US, India, China and most of the rest of the world that is growing
is likely to do so on the basis of a consumption revolution. Below is out insight piece that opened the chapter on India's final coming out that was much awaited but wasn't really happening till 2009..
The Commonwealth Games Infrastructure Train
A few years ago, when the Indian women shot Gold in Commonwealth Hockey and our aim in general started consistently being medal grade, we won the bid for New Delhi to host the games in 2010. This business of infrastructure had been mystifying sportspersons for decades in India; none too easily supported by the overarching smell of rent and inadequate facilities for local sports persons historically.
Even today most sports would bow out in front of Cricket and that is not a full-fledged event at the CWG, though there is still a toss-up for the T20 version to be added. Like most other spheres of life, China has been doing it higher, faster and stronger, having already held the challenging Olympics in 2008 earning over $2b for Beijing, the host city.
The story is quite public and you must have all followed it at least since August 2009 when the first few fistcuffs were exchanged regarding the lack of preparations for the CWG event now just 6-7 months away. The Sports Minister and the Games Organising Committee Chair Suresh Kalmadi has variously ben painted and vilified while we look at the rejuvenated parts of Wembley in London and survive on facepaint and cheering the local IPL franchise in Cricket games. The painting of events apart we just thought it important for Sports and Tourist infrastructure worth $1.5 billion to be included in the India story at about this time.
This preamble would survive your taste buds and your snipping scissors in the mind and we�ll come back right after lunch is over for you..
And the Original piece..follow up article on our Lifestyle Economics stream
If you have been following the India story closely, India�fs new developments are focussed on Infrastructure and Retail along with giant leaps in the Entertainment business. You can look closely at the India stories athttp://advantages.us/inframils to get a flavor of what�fs happening in Indian Infrastructure
On the other hand Retail Lifestyle businesses are increasingly attracting investors�cRural Markets may grow at a faster pace at least on the Drawing board. �c Where is Investor access? Why is it still on the government to make it happen? The FDI limits and the others are fairly rational policies..but where are the investors?..
Nanos will roll into homes by July end and IPL teams are already applying for trademarks as it looks set to become the greatest sporting extravaganza in the world, already ranked at #2 behind the NFL season in the USA. The 3G challenge will tear at Telecom companies�f profits in the coming years�c
(The image is of a young indian golfer in Scotland)
BUT, Importantly, India caught on to serious lifestyle investments early in 2005, Today with the debut of Cox and Kings IPO..
Where it is now?
Towns like Jalandhar, Ludhiana in Punjab, Jaipur and Agra on the Golden Triangle and such state capitals, heritage and business towns like Ahmedabad, Surat and Nagpur present a unique opportunity for Indian hospitality business to scale up, esp as Indian railways, india�fs aviation footprint and the road infrastructure will follow in step with the boom. Note: The Indian Maharaja with TC, Maharajas Express with Cox & Kings, and the other two luxury trains have started first season bookings quite well and money is being spendt to add gym and pool to the Palace on wheels as well ( More here ) Golden Palace started from Bangalore is not doing so well apparently. The Maharajas Express for example is 84 persons at an average of $1000 per night for a 7 day- 8 night tour between Mumbai and Delhi
